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Заглавие статьи	После демографического перехода: дивергенция, конвергенция или разнообразие?
Автор(ы)	А. Г. ВИШНЕВСКИЙ
Источник	Общественные науки и современность, № 2, 2015, C. 112-129
Рубрика	ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКИЕ ДИСКУССИИ
Место издания	Москва, Российская Федерация
Объем	51.0 Kbytes
Количество слов

После демографического перехода: дивергенция, конвергенция или разнообразие?

Автор: А. Г. ВИШНЕВСКИЙ

После демографического перехода: дивергенция, конвергенция или разнообразие?*

Автор анализирует аргументы критиков теории демографического перехода. Показано, что наблюдаемые различия в демографических процессах разных стран не свидетельствуют об ошибочности этой теории. Напротив, данные различия вполне вписываются в общий тренд теории, предполагающий смену парадигмы высоких рождаемости и смертности на парадигму низких рождаемости и смертности. Они свидетельствуют лишь о естественности разнообразия демографических процессов в разных странах.

Ключевые слова: демография, демографический переход, теория демографического перехода, демографический прогноз.

The author analyzes the arguments of the critics of the theory of demographic transition. It is shown that the observed differences in demographic processes in different countries do not show the fallacy of this theory. On the contrary, these differences fit well into the general trend of the theory, suggesting a paradigm shift of high birth and death rates in the paradigm of low fertility and mortality. They only show the natural diversity of demographic processes in different countries.

Keywords: demography, demographic transition theory of demographic transition, the population projection.