При расчете скорректированной приведенной стоимости (APV) предполагалось, что издержки банкротства составляют 25% стоимости компании. Мы получили, что максимум APV достигается при долге в 30%.
Рис.3. Скорректированная приведенная стоимость
На основе анализа текущей структуры капитала можно сделать вывод, что «Уралкалий» придерживается теории порядка финансирования, так как обладает значительными внутренними ресурсами и привлекает мало долга. Однако согласно компромиссной теории, привлечение долга помогло бы компании повысить стоимость.
Минимизация WACC | |||||||||||||||||||||
D/(D+E) | 0% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% | 35% | 40% | 45% | 50% | 55% | 60% | 65% | 70% | 75% | 80% | 85% | 90% | 95% | |
D/E | 0% | 5% | 11% | 18% | 25% | 33% | 43% | 54% | 67% | 82% | 100% | 122% | 150% | 186% | 233% | 300% | 400% | 567% | 900% | 1900% | |
Долг | 13328.1 | 26656.2 | 39984.3 | 53312.4 | 66640.5 | 79968.6 | 93296.7 | 106624.8 | 119952.9 | 146609.1 | 159937.2 | 173265.3 | 186593.4 | 199921.5 | 213249.6 | 226577.7 | 239905.8 | 253233.9 | |||
Проценты | 718.38 | 1436.77 | 2155.15 | 2953.51 | 3925.13 | 4710.15 | 5588.47 | 6386.83 | 7784.94 | 11515.48 | 14866.16 | 16217.63 | 22333.90 | 24051.89 | 29768.31 | 36017.86 | 38268.97 | 40520.09 | 42771.21 | ||
EBIT | |||||||||||||||||||||
ICR | ∞ | 28.467 | 14.233 | 9.489 | 6.924 | 5.210 | 4.342 | 3.659 | 3.202 | 2.627 | 1.776 | 1.376 | 1.261 | 0.916 | 0.850 | 0.687 | 0.568 | 0.534 | 0.505 | 0.478 | |
Синтет. рейтинг | ААА | ААА | ААА | ААА | АА | A | A | A- | A- | BBB | B+ | B- | B- | CCC | CCC | CC | C | C | C | C | |
Kd | 5.39% | 5.39% | 5.39% | 5.39% | 5.54% | 5.89% | 5.89% | 5.99% | 5.99% | 6.49% | 8.64% | 10.14% | 10.14% | 12.89% | 12.89% | 14.89% | 16.89% | 16.89% | 16.89% | 16.89% | |
Kd(AT) | 4.55% | 4.55% | 4.55% | 4.55% | 4.68% | 4.98% | 4.98% | 5.06% | 5.06% | 5.48% | 7.30% | 8.57% | 8.57% | 10.89% | 10.89% | 12.58% | 14.27% | 14.27% | 14.27% | 14.27% | |
Beta | 1.53 | 1.60 | 1.68 | 1.76 | 1.86 | 1.96 | 2.09 | 2.23 | 2.39 | 2.59 | 2.83 | 3.11 | 3.47 | 3.94 | 4.55 | 5.42 | 6.71 | 8.87 | 13.18 | 26.13 | |
Tax rate | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | 15.5% | |
Rf | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.89% | |
RP | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | 6.03% | |
Ke | 14.13% | 14.54% | 14.99% | 15.50% | 16.08% | 16.73% | 17.47% | 18.33% | 19.33% | 20.51% | 21.93% | 23.67% | 25.84% | 28.62% | 32.34% | 37.54% | 45.35% | 58.36% | 84.38% | 162.43% | |
WACC $ | 14.13% | 14.04% | 13.95% | 13.86% | 13.80% | 13.79% | 13.72% | 13.69% | 13.62% | 13.75% | 14.62% | 15.36% | 15.48% | 17.10% | 17.33% | 18.82% | 20.49% | 20.88% | 21.28% | 21.68% | |
WACC руб | 22.34% | 22.24% | 22.15% | 22.05% | 21.98% | 21.97% | 21.90% | 21.86% | 21.80% | 21.93% | 22.86% | 23.66% | 23.78% | 25.52% | 25.76% | 27.37% | 29.15% | 29.58% | 30.01% | 30.43% |
Темп прироста | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.15 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.05 | ||
прогнозный FCFF | 19635.42 | 23562.51 | 27096.88 | 29806.57 | 32787.23 | 36065.95 | 39672.54 | 43639.80 | 45821.79 | ||
D/(D+E) | WACC | Приведенный FCFF | TCF | Value | |||||||
0% | 22.34% | 16050.49 | 15744.09 | 14800.06 | 13307.73 | 11965.88 | 10759.34 | 9674.45 | 8698.95 | 264325.71 | 365326.70 |
5% | 22.24% | 16062.92 | 15768.50 | 14834.49 | 13349.03 | 12012.31 | 10809.45 | 9727.04 | 8753.02 | 265777.85 | 367094.61 |
10% | 22.15% | 16075.38 | 15792.96 | 14869.02 | 13390.48 | 12058.96 | 10859.84 | 9779.97 | 8807.47 | 267246.03 | 368880.11 |
20% | 21.98% | 16096.76 | 15835.00 | 14928.44 | 13461.87 | 12139.38 | 10946.81 | 9871.39 | 8901.63 | 269799.24 | 371980.51 |
30% | 21.90% | 16107.42 | 15855.99 | 14958.12 | 13497.57 | 12179.63 | 10990.38 | 9917.25 | 8948.90 | 271087.96 | 373543.22 |
35% | 21.86% | 16112.76 | 15866.49 | 14972.99 | 13515.46 | 12199.82 | 11012.24 | 9940.27 | 8972.65 | 271736.95 | 374329.63 |
40% | 21.80% | 16121.70 | 15884.09 | 14997.91 | 13545.47 | 12233.68 | 11048.93 | 9978.92 | 9012.53 | 272829.77 | 375653.00 |
45% | 21.93% | 16103.68 | 15848.61 | 14947.69 | 13485.02 | 12165.48 | 10975.06 | 9901.12 | 8932.27 | 270634.13 | 372993.07 |
50% | 22.86% | 15981.94 | 15609.89 | 14611.24 | 13081.84 | 11712.53 | 10486.55 | 9388.90 | 8406.14 | 256559.88 | 355838.91 |
60% | 23.78% | 15863.13 | 15378.68 | 14287.81 | 12697.17 | 11283.62 | 10027.44 | 8911.10 | 7919.05 | 243989.67 | 340357.67 |
70% | 25.76% | 15612.83 | 14897.19 | 13622.09 | 11914.55 | 10421.06 | 9114.78 | 7972.24 | 6972.91 | 220672.19 | 311199.84 |
APV | ||||||||||||||||||||
D/(D+E) | 0% | 5% | 10% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 30% | 35% | 40% | 45% | 50% | 55% | 60% | 65% | 70% | 75% | 80% | 85% | 90% | 95% |
V unlevered | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 | 365326.70 |
V lev | 365326.70 | 378654.80 | 391982.90 | 405311.00 | 418639.10 | 431967.20 | 445295.30 | 458623.40 | 471951.50 | 485279.60 | 498607.70 | 511935.80 | 525263.90 | 538592.00 | 551920.10 | 565248.20 | 578576.30 | 591904.40 | 605232.50 | 618560.60 |
Синт.рейтинг | ААА | ААА | ААА | ААА | АА | A | A | A- | A- | BBB | B+ | B- | B- | CCC | CCC | CC | C | C | C | C |
Вероятность банкротства | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.07% | 0.51% | 0.66% | 0.66% | 2.50% | 2.50% | 7.54% | 25.00% | 45.00% | 45.00% | 59.01% | 59.01% | 70.00% | 85.00% | 85.00% | 85.00% | 85.00% |
BC=25%V | 91331.67 | 94663.70 | 97995.72 | 101327.75 | 104659.77 | 107991.80 | 111323.82 | 114655.85 | 117987.87 | 121319.90 | 124651.92 | 127983.95 | 131315.97 | 134648.00 | 137980.02 | 141312.05 | 144644.07 | 147976.10 | 151308.12 | 154640.15 |
PV BC | 1186.13 | 1229.40 | 1272.67 | 1315.94 | 9634.74 | 12100.95 | 12474.32 | 47853.03 | 49243.69 | 140947.93 | 360682.65 | 567976.11 | 582763.20 | 616414.15 | 631668.06 | 664327.97 | 727930.51 | 744699.14 | 761467.77 | 778236.40 |
PV TS | 0.00 | 2065.86 | 4131.71 | 6197.57 | 8263.42 | 10329.28 | 12395.13 | 14460.99 | 16526.84 | 18592.70 | 20658.56 | 22724.41 | 24790.27 | 26856.12 | 28921.98 | 30987.83 | 33053.69 | 35119.54 | 37185.40 | 39251.25 |
APV | 357140.57 | 360163.16 | 361185.74 | 363208.32 | 358955.38 | 363555.03 | 365247.51 | 331934.66 | 332609.86 | 242971.47 | 25302.60 | -179925.00 | -192646.24 | -224231.33 | -237419.38 | -268013.44 | -329550.13 | -344252.90 | -358955.67 | -373658.44 |
If interest coverage ratio is | ||||
> | ≤ to | Rating is | Spread is | Bankruptcy Probability |
-100000 | 0.199999 | D | 15.00% | 100% |
0.2 | 0.649999 | C | 12.00% | 85% |
0.65 | 0.799999 | CC | 10.00% | 70.00% |
0.8 | 1.249999 | CCC | 8.00% | 59.01% |
1.25 | 1.499999 | B- | 5.25% | 45.00% |
1.5 | 1.749999 | B | 5.00% | 36.80% |
1.75 | 1.999999 | B+ | 3.75% | 25.00% |
2.2499999 | BB | 3.35% | 16.63% | |
2.25 | 2.49999 | BB+ | 3.00% | 10.00% |
2.5 | 2.999999 | BBB | 1.60% | 7.54% |
4.249999 | A- | 1.10% | 2.50% | |
4.25 | 5.499999 | A | 1.00% | 0.66% |
5.5 | 6.499999 | A+ | 0.85% | 0.60% |
6.5 | 8.499999 | AA | 0.65% | 0.51% |
8.50 | AAA | 0.50% | 0.07% |
[1] Сайт А. Дамодарана, режим доступа: [http://damodaran.com]
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[2] По данным сайта Forexpros – financial markets worldwide, режим доступа:[http://www.forexpros.com/indices/uk-100-historical-data]
[3] http://www.bfm.ru/news/2011/01/11/infljacija-v-rossii-v-2010-godu-sostavila-8-8.html
[4] http://top.rbc.ru/economics/14/01/2011/527562.shtml