planning and forecasting

Today, government effectiveness is directly related to the quality of forecasts of social-economic development. The forecast can greatly reduce the uncertainty of the future, and also act as a tool of selecting optimal solutions. It is obvious that the existing system of planning and forecasting in the country in need of reform. Often the state forecasts socially-economic development of not able to withstand harsh criticism. Any reform should begin with the study and analysis of experience gained in the reformed region.

One of the dominating positions in the world economy is the USA. Currently, proclaimed that planning is one of the activities is constantly carried out by the US Government. At the Federal level in the United States the development of various forecasts done by three organizations: the Council of economic advisers, office of management and budget, the Board of governors of the Federal reserve system (FRS).

Thus, the U.S. experience in forecasting course contains both positive and promising for potential implementation in the sphere of domestic forecasting aspects and others that will not contribute to the development of this industry in our country. The first group include: the formation and presence of commercial sector forecasting and active involvement to develop models of economic development of higher educational institutions, training of highly qualified personnel, and building of relationships between organisations involved in forecasting and public authorities on a commercial basis. Also worth noting is the understanding by the government and the individual States of the importance of socio-economic development. Because of this, from the budgets of all levels allocated a substantial amount to Finance activities in the field of forecasting. The second group includes the vagueness of the structural organization of the forecasting bodies at the regional level, the absence of legislative responsibility for the discrepancy between predictions and real results achieved, the lack of clear legislation in the coordination of activities in the area of forecasting between the Executive authorities of the States and country.

In Canada at the Federal level there is no specific legislation governing the planning and forecasting of economic development. However, quite a fully developed budget legislation. All forecasting and planning is built as part of the budget process. Plans and forecasts are reduced to optimize the expenditure and revenue parts of the budget. However, since the early 70-ies of XX century, all ministries and departments have begun to develop operational action plans, and these plans are multi-year. Since 1995, departments and ministries began to develop business plans. This aspect can be considered the most significant and relevant achievements of the canadian system of state planning and forecasting. In the future, our country should introduce a similar system, requiring all departments and units of Executive authorities at Federal and regional levels, to develop their development plans.

Plans in Japan are some of the regulatory mechanisms of a market economy. It uses only market-based instruments. On the basis of forecasts in separate branches of the state operate. If necessary, more active development, the state may apply incentive methods: to apply a system of preferential taxation, to make budget subsidies, to place a large government order, to provide different schemes of preferential crediting, etc. Such measures can give a positive result only in terms of accurate forecasts. Russia is also widely used intervention mechanisms in the market economy, but recent years have increasingly detected cases of ineffective use of public funds (we are talking about public procurement, various support entrepreneurship, concessional lending to certain groups of citizens). Any decision affecting the country's economy on the basis of reliable forecasts of socio-economic development, can significantly improve the efficiency of public administration.The system forecasts in Japan, contains long, medium and short-term forecasts. Short-term forecasting mainly used in the budgetary process. Medium-term development programs comprise a half-century history. Moreover, significant attention was paid to the medium-term regional development programs. The last such program is dated 1992.

A significant feature of all of the medium-term development programmes is their "sliding" nature. Each subsequent program was developed and approved by the Parliament in 2-3 years before the end of the previous program. Gradually the basis for the programs laid down indicative planning. All the forecasts should take into account different options for the development of the economy and were subordinated to the strategic development of the Japanese economy.

The list of Literature:

1. http://group-global.org

2. Зарубежный опыт государственного прогнозирования, стратегического планирования и программирования: монография / под ред. С.Ю. Глазьева, Ю.В. Яковца; Государственный ун-т управления, Национальный ин-т развития, Региональная научная организация исследователей прогнозистов «Прогнозы и циклы». – М., 2008. – 124

3. http://www.akorda.kz/ru/official_documents/strategies_and_programs