Global trends: future conflict

Through 2015, internal conflicts will pose the most frequent threat to stability around the world. Intensive wars, though less frequent, will grow in lethality due to the availability of more destructive technologies. The international community will have to deal with the military, political, and economic dimensions of the rise of China and India and the continued decline of Russia. Many internal conflicts, particularly those arising from communal disputes, will continue to be dangerous, long – lasting and difficult to terminate.

They frequently will trigger refugee flows, humanitarian emergencies, and other regionally destabilizing dislocations.

Internal conflicts will cause spillover into inter-state conflicts as neighboring states move to exploit opportunities for gain or to limit the possibilities of damage to their national interests.

Weak states will face internal conflicts, threatening the stability of a globalizing international system.

Internal conflicts growing from state repression, religious and ethnic discontent, increasing migration pressures will occur most frequently in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Caucasus and Central Asia, and parts of south and south-east Asia, Central America and the Andean region.

The United Nations and several regional organizations will continue to be called upon to manage some internal conflicts because major states – stressed by domestic concerns, risk of failure, lack of political will, or tight resources – will wish to minimize their direct involvement. When, however, some western governments, international and regional organizations press for outside military intervention in certain internal conflicts, they will be opposed by such states as China, India, Russia and many developing countries that will tend to view interventions as dangerous precedents challenging state sovereignty.

Task 9:

Give English equivalents of the following words and phrases and reproduce the sentences from the text with this active vocabulary.

Поток беженцев; вызвать; измерение; межкультурные и религиозно – этнические разногласия; нехватка ресурсов; представлять угрозу; заканчивать; внутренний; гуманитарная катастрофа; перетекание (переход); летальность; использовать возможность; недовольство; межгосударственные войны; иметь тенденцию.

Task10:

Read the article again and answer the questions using the active vocabulary

1) What conflicts will pose the most frequent threat to stability around the world?

2) Why will inter-state wars grow in lethality?

3) What features of future internal conflicts can you name?

4) What will internal conflicts frequently trigger?

5) What will internal conflicts cause?

6) What are internal conflicts growing from?

7) What will China, India and Russia oppose? And why?

Task11:

Using the active vocabulary retell the article in English.

Task 12:

Questions for discussion.

1) What countries do you believe will be more dangerous and why?

2) Why do you think non-government experts assume that many internal conflicts, particularly those arising from communal disputes, will continue to be dangerous, long-lasting and difficult to terminate?

3) Why will internal conflicts spillover into inter-state conflict?

4) How do you think religious and ethnic discontent, increasing migration pressures may affect Russian security?

Task 13:

Translate the following texts into English

1.Превентивная война- война захватническая, в этом нет сомнения. Она не может подходить под определение справедливой оборонительной войны. Такое заявление сделал председатель католической организации «Справедливость и мир».

«Каждое государство имеет право защищаться от нападения, - уточнил он,- но это должно быть реальное нападение, а не вероятность агрессии, Вначале должна быть агрессия, а затем ответный, оборонительный удар, а не наоборот».

2.Индия пристально следит за ракетно – ядерными программами Пакистана и предпринимает соответствующие меры на случай применения на её территории ядерного или биологического оружия. Об этом проинформировал министр обороны страны верхнюю палату парламента. Индия делает всё, подчеркнул он, чтобы гарантировать защиту от ядерного оружия.

Он также заявил, что Пакистан вновь открыл на своей территории лагеря и учебные центры по подготовке террористов с целью их последующей отправки в Индию для совершения террористических актов и дестабилизации в этом регионе.

Comment on the quotation:

“Against war it may be said that it makes the victor stupid and the vanquished revengeful.”

(Nietzsche)

Task 14:

Read the article and look up the unknown words and phrases in the dictionary.