Всякое справочное руководство представляет собой концентрированный текст, и дальнейшая его концентрация может ввести в заблуждение. Поэтому мы хотим предостеречь от соблазна использовать табл. 1, 2 и 3 в качестве сжатого эквивалента этого очерка. Их цель — упорядочить изложение и избавить его от излишних повторений.
Конкретные плюсы, минусы и вопросительные знаки постоянно ставились с оговорками и являлись лишь неточными обобщениями итогов соответствующего обсуждения. Для любой конкретной реализации каждого плана картина плюсов и минусов, скорее всего, будет отличаться от соответствующей строчки в таблице. Таблицы лучше всего использовать как канву для добросовестного анализа конкретных деталей эксперимента при его планировании. И конечно же, мы не собираемся подменять догмы одного-двух приемлемых планов эксперимента догмой тринадцати. Напротив, нам хотелось бы способствовать укреплению открытой, поисковой ориентации на разработку новых способов получения данных и выявление слабых сторон традиционных методик.
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Подведем теперь основные итоги сказанному. В этой работе мы обсудили возможности, существующие в области построения или планирования эксперимента, и уделили особое внимание проблемам контроля посторонних переменных и угрозам валидности эксперимента. Мы проводили различие между внутренней и внешней валидностью, или возможностью обобщения результатов. Оценка качества 16 экспериментальных планов и их вариантов велась по восьми классам факторов внутренней и четырем — внешней валидности. Три плана были определены как доэкспериментальные и были использованы в первую очередь для иллюстрации факторов валидности, которые нужно контролировать. Три плана названы «истинными», десять планов — квазиэкспериментальными, то есть такими, в которых отсутствует оптимальный контроль, но которые стоит использовать в тех случаях, когда применение лучшего плана невозможно. При интерпретации результатов квазиэксперимента особенно важна проверка перечисленных
12 факторов валидности. На протяжении всей работы обращалось внимание на возможность творческого использования особенностей конкретной ситуации исследования при планировании конкретных испытаний каузальных гипотез.
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