Transnational terrorism

  States with poor governance; ethnic, or religious tensions; weak economies will be prime grounds for terrorism. At the same time, the trend away from state – supported political terrorism and toward more diverse, transnational networks – enabled by information technology- will continue. Some of the states that actively sponsor terrorism or terrorist groups’ today may decrease or even cease their support by 2015 as a result of regime changes, or the conclusion that terrorism has become counterproductive. But weak states also could drift toward cooperation with terrorists, creating de facto new state supporters. Between now and 2015 terrorist tactics will become increasingly sophisticated and aimed at achieving mass casualties. We expect the trend toward greater lethality in terrorist attacks to continue.

 

Task 8:

 

Read the article and look up the meaning of unknown words

 

Global trends: future conflict

 

Through 2015, internal conflicts will pose the most frequent threat to stability around the world. Intensive wars, though less frequent, will grow in lethality due to the availability of more destructive technologies. The international community will have to deal with the military, political, and economic dimensions of the rise of China and India and the continued decline of Russia. Many internal conflicts, particularly those arising from communal disputes, will continue to be dangerous, long – lasting and difficult to terminate.

They frequently will trigger refugee flows, humanitarian emergencies, and other regionally destabilizing dislocations.

Internal conflicts will cause spillover into inter-state conflicts as neighboring states move to exploit opportunities for gain or to limit the possibilities of damage to their national interests.

  Weak states will face internal conflicts, threatening the stability of a globalizing international system.

Internal conflicts growing from state repression, religious and ethnic discontent, increasing migration pressures will occur most frequently in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Caucasus and Central Asia, and parts of south and south-east Asia, Central America and the Andean region.

The United Nations and several regional organizations will continue to be called upon to manage some internal conflicts because major states – stressed by domestic concerns, risk of failure, lack of political will, or tight resources – will wish to minimize their direct involvement. When, however, some western governments, international and regional organizations press for outside military intervention in certain internal conflicts, they will be opposed by such states as China, India, Russia and many developing countries that will tend to view interventions as dangerous precedents challenging state sovereignty.

 

Task 9:

Give English equivalents of the following words and phrases and reproduce the sentences from the text with this active vocabulary.

 

Поток беженцев; вызвать; измерение; межкультурные и религиозно – этнические разногласия; нехватка ресурсов; представлять угрозу; заканчивать; внутренний; гуманитарная катастрофа; перетекание (переход); летальность; использовать возможность; недовольство; межгосударственные войны; иметь тенденцию.

 

 

Task10:

 

Read the article again and answer the questions using the active vocabulary

 

1) What conflicts will pose the most frequent threat to stability around the world?

2) Why will inter-state wars grow in lethality?

3) What features of future internal conflicts can you name?

4) What will internal conflicts frequently trigger?

5) What will internal conflicts cause?

6) What are internal conflicts growing from?

7) What will China, India and Russia oppose?  And why?

 

 

Task11:

 

Using the active vocabulary retell the article in English.

 

Task 12:

 

Questions for discussion.

 

1) What countries do you believe will be more dangerous and why?

2) Why do you think non-government experts assume that many internal conflicts, particularly those arising from communal disputes, will continue to be dangerous, long-lasting and difficult to terminate?

3) Why will internal conflicts spillover into inter-state conflict?

4) How do you think religious and ethnic discontent, increasing migration pressures may affect Russian security?

 

Task 13:

 

Translate the following texts into English

 

1.Превентивная война- война захватническая, в этом нет сомнения. Она не может подходить под определение справедливой оборонительной войны. Такое заявление сделал председатель католической организации «Справедливость и мир».

«Каждое государство имеет право защищаться от нападения, - уточнил он,- но это должно быть реальное нападение, а не вероятность агрессии, Вначале должна быть агрессия, а затем ответный, оборонительный удар, а не наоборот».

 

2.Индия пристально следит за ракетно – ядерными программами Пакистана и предпринимает соответствующие меры на случай применения на её территории ядерного или биологического оружия. Об этом проинформировал министр обороны страны верхнюю палату парламента. Индия делает всё, подчеркнул он, чтобы гарантировать защиту от ядерного оружия.

Он также заявил, что Пакистан вновь открыл на своей территории лагеря и учебные центры по подготовке террористов с целью их последующей отправки в Индию для совершения террористических актов и дестабилизации в этом регионе.

 

Comment on the quotation:

 

“Against war it may be said that it makes the victor stupid and the vanquished revengeful.”

                                                                                                                         (Nietzsche)

 

Task 14:

Read the article and look up the unknown words and phrases in the dictionary.

 

 

Interstate conflicts

 

The international system will have to adjust to changing power relations in key regions.

 - China’s potential. Estimates of China beyond five years are unpredictable. Some projections indicate that Chinese power will rise because of the growth of its economic and military capabilities. Other projections indicate that political, social, and economic pressures will increasingly challenge the stability and legitimacy of the region. Most assessments today argue that China will seek to avoid conflict in the region to promote stable economic growth and to ensure internal stability. A strong China, others assert, would seek to adjust regional power arrangements to its advantage, risking conflict with neighbors and some powers external to the region. A weak China would increase prospects for criminality, narcotics trafficking, illegal migration, WMD proliferation, and widespread social instability.

 - Japan’s uncertainty. In the view of many experts, Japan will have difficulty maintaining its correct position as the world’s third largest economy by 2015.Tokyo has so far not shown a willingness to carry through the painful economic reforms necessary to slaw the erosion of its leadership role in Asia. In the absence of an external shock, Japan is similarly unlikely to accelerate changes in security policy.

- India’s prospects. India will strengthen its role as a regional power, but many uncertainties about the effect of global trends on its society cast doubt on how far India will go. India faces growing extremes between wealth and poverty, a mixed picture on natural resources, and problems with internal governance.

The changing dynamics of state power will combine with other factors to affect the risk of conflict in various regions. Changing military capabilities will be prominent among the factors that determine the risk of war. In South Asia, for example, the risk will remain fairly high as India and Pakistan are both prone to miscalculation. Both will continue to build up their nuclear and missile forces. A noticeable increase in the size of India’s arsenal, however, would prompt Pakistan to further increase the size of its own arsenal.

China by 2015 will have deployed tens to several tens of missiles with nuclear warheads targeted against the United States, mostly more survivable land –and sea – based mobile missiles.it also will have hundreds of shorter-range ballistic and cruise missiles for use in regional conflicts

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) will remain the world’s largest military, but the majority of the force will not be fully modernized by 2015.China could close the technological gap with the West in one of more major weapons systems. China’s capability for regional military operations is likely to improve significantly by 2015.

- China will be exploiting advanced weapons and production technologies acquired from abroad – Russia, Israel, Europe, Japan, and the United States – than will enable it to integrate naval and air capabilities against Taiwan and potential adversaries in the South China Sea.

- In the event of a peaceful resolution of a Taiwan issue, some of China’s military objectives – such as protecting the sea lanes for Persian Gulf oil- could become closer to those  of the United States.Nevertheless, as an emerging regional power, China would continue     to expand its influence without regard to US interests.

 

Answer the questions using the active vocabulary.

 

1) What will the international system have to adjust to?

2) What are estimates of China beyond five years?

3) What is the forecast for Japan?

4) What are both India and Pakistan prone to?

5) Will India and Pakistan reduce their nuclear and missile forces?

 

Using the active vocabulary render the context of the article in English

 

 

Task 15:

 

Tasks for presentations:

 

1. The position of Japan in the world economy. Do you agree that Japan can lose its positions in the world economy? What way can this influence Russian Japanese relations?

2. The Chinese perspective forecast. Would China continue to expand its influence without regard to US interests?

2. What is your forecast for Russia in the world economy over the next 15 years?

 

Task 16:

 

Choose one of the following topics and prepare a 4-5 minute speech on it.

 

1. Political aspects of terrorism

2.Legal aspects of terrorism

3. Psychological aspects of terrorism.

 

  

  Task 17:

 

Debates

 

Make a presentation on the topic: “Security versus Civil Liberty.” Give arguments and counter - arguments.

 

 

  

                                

 

Unit XVII.