2018-02-14
432
The peaceful end of the Cold War does not ensure a peaceful future. On the contrary, the insights of long-cycle and realist theories predict pessimistically that prevailing trends in the diffusion of economic power will lead to renewed competition, conflict, and perhaps even warfare among the great powers, and that the range of new problems and potential threats will multiply. As political scientist Robert Jervis explains, cyclical thinking suggests that, freed from the constraints of the Cold War, world politics will return to earlier patterns. Many of the basic generalizations of international politics remain unaltered: It is still anarchic in the sense that there is no international sovereign that can make and enforce laws and agreements.The security dilemma remains as well, with the problems it creates for states who would like to cooperate but whose security requirements do not mesh. Many specific causes of conflict also remain, including desires for greater prestige, economic rivalries, hostile nationalisms, divergent perspectives on and incompatible standards of legitimacy, religious animosities, and territorial ambitions. To put it more generally, both aggression and spirals of insecurity and tension can still disturb the peace.
To realists, great-power rivalry for power and position is likely to resume because the international anarchy that promotes it continues to shape the international conduct of states. Realists also foresee probable instability resulting from the change unfolding in the international system‘s structure if US hegemony continues to decay. As rivals rise to challenge US leadership, a new structure will emerge.
Exercises:
1 Answer the following questions:
1. What dominated 20th century world politics?
2. What usually preceded a war‘s outbreak?
3. What do you know about the long-cycle theory?
4. What does the hegemonic stability theory assume?
5. When and why did World War I break out?
6. What were the consequences of World War I?
7. What caused the outbreak of World War II?
8. What were the consequences of World War II?
9. When and why did the Cold War start?
10. What are the consequences of the Cold War?
2 Give Russian equivalents for the following word-combinations:
through the lens of realism, shifting ranking, to precede war‘s outbreak, a core concern, victorious hegemon, acquisition of unrivaled power, to reshape the system, to set the stage, total breakdown, subsequent efforts, law of gravity, beyond policymakers‘ control, entrenched cycle, to tumble onto the world stage, a series of moves and countermoves, far-reaching consequences, to terminate a war, to share a conviction, to preclude reappearance, to reevaluate assumptions, the rules of statecraft, to deter the resumption of rivalry, receding hope, to magnify distrust, ill-defined borders, to design a new order, unconditional surrender, to pave the way for a new system, to slide from the apex of the world-power hierarchy, to cast shadow, advent of nuclear weapons, profound and diverse ways, long-neglected domestic problems, immediate consequence, devolution of empire, peaceful retreat, to extract resources, ascending powers, to delineate the purpose of power, to invalidate the framework, divergent perspectives, incompatible standards, religious animosity, conduct of states.
3 Give English equivalents for the following words and word-combinations:
во всем мире, относительно друг друга, состязание за верховенство, на самой вершине иерархии, начальная точка, привести в движение, по этой причине, враждебный союз, свержение царя, пробудить отвращение к войне, соперничество великих держав, глобальный по размаху, несовместимые идеологии, губительные потери, перераспределить власть, достичь нечетких компромиссов, навязать свою волю, покоренные страны, быть разделенным на зоны, подойти к концу, ускорить распад колониальных империй, поменять облик, незнакомые обстоятельства, обеспечить мирное будущее, наоборот, остаться неизменным, экономическое соперничество, предвидеть нестабильность, разворачиваться, приходить в упадок.
4 Make up nouns from the following verbs and adjectives using suffixes:
to compare, to evaluate, to compete, to lose, to continue, to explain, to punctuate, to recur, to conclude, to maintain, to involve, to recover, to explore, to anticipate, to emerge, to arrange, to acquire, to create, to enforce, to preserve, to induce, to restore, to imply, to confirm, to produce, to provide, to assume, to require, to contribute, to prevent, to resolve, to preclude, to expect, to reflect, to propose, to resume, to achieve, to devastate, to absorb, to guide, to erode, to magnify, to pave, to conceive, to exhaust, to remove, to alter, to hate, to resent, to disturb;
supreme, emphatic, violent, unique, regular, stable, vulnerable, sufficient, hostile, deliberate, compatible, certain, distructive, diverse.
5 Give as many synonyms as possible to the following words:
wealthy, continual, famous, recurring, formidable, major, different, experienced, independent, particular, vague, profound, external;
to evaluate, to evoke, to show, to anticipate, to seek, to acquire, to preserve, to induce, to support, to require, to shatter, to emerge, to convince, to happen, to build, to gather, to hinge, to surrender, to free, to guarantee;
competition, coalition, costs, demise, destiny, property, threat, revulsion, scope, border, terrain.
6 Give antonyms adding negative affixes if necessary:
ancient, continual, famous, major, unique, capable, sufficient, hostile, necessary, compatible, well-defined, vague, conditional, prewar, rivaled, paralleled;
to precede, to acquire, to agree, to free, to terminate, to unite;
winner, emergence, ascent, trust, illusion, certainty, stability.
7 Explain the meaning of the following adverbs and make up sentences with them:
habitually, closely, continuously, regularly, characteristically, sufficiently, disarmingly, disturbingly, previously, eventually.
8 Insert prepositions where necessary:
1 … accepting the devolution … its external empire, the Soviet Union has made the most dramatic peaceful retreat … power … history.
2 People see a globe … competitors … winners and losers … an ancient contest … supremacy.
3 … this reason, the relationship … the great powers‘ rise and fall and global instability is a core concern … theories … world politics.
4 World War I tumbled … the world stage when a Serbian nationalist seeking to free Slavs … Austrian rule assassinated Archduke Ferdinand, heir … the throne … Austria-Hungary, … Sarajevo … June 1914.
5 Japan, having been devastated … atomic bombs and then occupied … the United States, was also removed … the game … great power politics.
6 The World War II hastened the disintegration … the great colonial empires assembled … imperial states … previous centuries, thereby emancipating many peoples … foreign rule.
7 The war also contributed … the overthrow … the Russian csar … 1917 … the Bolsheviks.
8 Despite … its costs, the coalition consisiting … Britain, France, Russia, and later the US and Italy succeeded … defeating the threat … domination posed … the Central Powers.
9 The experience led the policymakers gathered … the Versailles Palace … Paris to reevaluate assumptions … the rules … statecraft and to search … other principles … which to build a new world order.
10 The emergence … communism … the leadership … V.I.Lenin produced a change … government and ideology that would have … far-reaching consequences.
9 Translate from Russian into English:
1 В мировой политике 20-го века доминировали циклы войны и мира, именно 2 мировые войны и Холодная война привели к основным изменениям в мировой политике.
2 Каждая глобальная война является свидетелем появления гегемона, который, приобретя огромную мощь, начинает диктовать правила и переделывает существующую систему.
3 Еще до убийства эрцгерцога Фердинанда, наследника Австро-Венгерского престола, образовались 2 враждебных союза, что в результате привело к первой мировой войне.
4 Несмотря на тяжелые последствия Первой мировой войны (гибель 10 млн человек, крушение империй, появление новых государств), возникло новое соперничество держав, что неизбежно вело к новой глобальной войне.
5 Хотя Германия проиграла Первую мировую войну, она не отказалась от агрессивного курса. Наоборот, ее претензии на мировое господство и влияние многократно усилились.
6 После Второй мировой войны США и СССР приобрели беспримерную мощь, дающую им возможность навязывать свою волю другим странам, которые по сравнению со сверхдержавами казались карликами.
7 Непосредственным следствием окончания Холодной войны является изменившаяся после драматичного распада СССР глобальная иерархия, на вершине которой находится лишь США.
10 Questions for discussions:
1 Long-cycle theory hypotheses.
2 World War I, its participants and consequences.
3 World War II, its participants and consequences.
4 The Cold War, its participants and consequences.
5 Is World War III possible? Give your reasons.
UNIT 6
