The Situation in Libya

NOVOSIBIRSK INTERNATIONAL MODEL UN 2012

BACKGROUD GUIDE for the United Nations Security Council

The Situation in Libya

Author: Pavel A. Luzin

PhD student, IMEMO

Russian Academy of Sciences

Novosibirsk 2012

Contents

Introduction. 3

1. Col. Qaddafi’s Libya as enfant terrible in international politics: 1969 – 2007. 4

2. Interests of leading powers in Libya and the region around. 5

3. Political landscape of Jamahiriya before the revolt of 2011: Col. Qaddafi’s family, institutions, tribes and religion. 6

4. Why has revolt happened? Political causes of Libyan events. 8

5. Who has revolted? Main actors. 9

6. Influence of Libyan events in the Northern and Central Africa and Mediterranean region 9

Conclusion. 10

Possibilities. 10

Additional Information. 11

Map 1. 13

Map 2. 14

Introduction

In February 2011 the revolt against Qaddafi has begun in Libya after the beginning of revolts in Tunisia and Egypt, and turmoil in other Arab states. But in distinction from Tunisian and Egyptian revolts Libyan revolt has become a bloody civil war at once.

On one side the governmental troops and militias and pro-Qaddafi combatants are fighting for the political reconstitution. On another side the rebels with the center in Benghazi, the second largest city in Libya, and some high-ranking deserters and renegades are fighting against Qaddafi’s regime. Also the rebels have established National Transitional Council (NTC) which claims functions of Libyan provisional government particularly in international relations.

Despite Libya is on periphery of world politics its turbulence is a stressful challenge for Europe and the West at all. The aspects of this challenge exist in some sensitive fields: cross-regional security and stability, penetration of refugees and illegal migrants in European continent, political reputation of western elites etc. So ignoring of Libyan revolt is impossible due to carrying weight reasons.

But there are complex issues of necessity and measures of world community’s interference in Libyan affairs as well as will such interference in accordance with the United Nations Charter? Politicians should also consider the engagement of different states with dissimilar interests, for example, interests of the leading European Union members, interests of Russia, Israel, Turkey and interests of the members of Cooperation Council of the Arab States of the Gulf (CCASG) etc.

France, Britain, Italy and the USA newly refer to the concept of humanitarian intervention since Kosovo in 1999 but there is no assurance that the fall of Jamahiriya in Libya will escape the risk of so called humanitarian disaster. Russia speaks about prohibition of interference in interim affairs of sovereign state but doesn’t speak how the explosive influence of Libyan revolt in regional stability can be eliminated. Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Qatar as leading Arab states try to overthrow Col. Qaddafi because of his contradictions with conservative Islamic monarchies in Northern African affairs but their strategic political goals don’t in phase with political goals, principles and values of the Western states.

So, the members of the United Nations Security Council are facing the dramatic issue in Libya when any decision for each state will mean the high responsibility for results.

1. Col. Qaddafi’s Libya as enfant terrible in international politics: 1969 – 2007

Since 1969 when Col. Muammar Qaddafi (or Gaddafi) has taken power in Libya and begun to build a Jamahiriya (in his political theory it is political regime where masses play the main role, also Jamahiriya is the “third way” – neither communism nor Western democracy) he was a source of problems and difficult situations for Libyan neighbors and for the West.

Firstly, Qaddafi tried to unite Libya with other Arab states such as Egypt, Tunisia, Algeria, Sudan or Syria in the Arab national state. His ambitious efforts didn’t end in success due to many reasons including Qaddafi’s aid for radical opposition forces in these states. Soon he damaged relations with Egypt and in summer 1977 there was war between Libya and Egypt.

Then Col. Qaddafi interfered in the Ugandan – Tanzanian war of 1978 – 1979 in the side of Uganda. At the same time he unleashed war with Chad which continued to 1987. Also Libyan government began to encourage Tuareg tribes in their fight for the establishing of Azaouad state primary in the territories of Mali and Niger.

Moreover M. Qaddafi announced the struggle against the West and Israel and sponsored some terrorist attacks in 1970s – 1980s. Qaddafi’s activity forced the United States to include his regime in the list of terrorists and then to bomb Libya in 1986. But it didn’t stop the Libyan dictator and in 1988 his secret service organized the explosion of American Boeing-747 above Lockerbie town. It was the most famous and awful attack of Qaddafi’s regime but not the last: the same attack against flight from Congo to France was in the sky of Niger in 1992. So, the UN used the sanctions against Libya after all in early 1990s.

The case is that the Soviet Union used Libya in its policy and intelligence deals in the Middle East and in Africa and blenched such “specifics” of Col. Qaddafi’s approach in foreign policy. But status quo has changed after 1991 when Libya became a full-rate rouge or pariah state and needed rehabilitation in international affairs.

M. Qaddafi decided on the carrot and stick. Libya began to pay compensations for the families of Lockerbie and Niger victims in 1999; moreover it extradited two agents of Libyan secret service which were accessorial to those attacks. As a result sanctions were annulled in 2003. At the same time Qaddafi tried to press on European leaders through the hostages: in 1999 Libyan authority arraigned five Bulgarian nurses in deliberate infection of Libyan children by HIV and received them into prison. In fact Col. Qaddafi exchanged nurses on the monetary aid from the EU and cooperation with leading European states (mainly France, Britain and Italy) in 2007.

The particular case is the Libyan weapons of mass destruction (WMD) development program. Its history counted decades and Libya was a customer of the A.Q. Khan illegal network for supplying of nuclear weapon technologies and materials (worked from early 1980s to 2004) but M. Qaddafi officially abandoned from developing of any kinds of WMD in 2003. It was a part of his carrot and stick approach.

So, we can speak, he achieved the goal of rehabilitation but there was no new foreign agenda in Libya after 2007 except chimerical reclamations on the leadership in all Africa.