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Influence of Libyan events in the case of uncontrolled developing will include some directions in the regions around.
Northern direction: The stream of refugees goes to Italy and to Europe at all. It creates a humanitarian threat to the EU.
Western direction: Big number of illegal conventional arms is concentrated aboard of Algeria and creates the threat to stability in the state. The ideas of radical Islam penetrate both in Algeria and Tunisia from turbulent Libya.
Eastern direction: The illegal conventional arms can penetrate to Sudan and bring the risks of explosion in recently separated countries. Also the Libyan turbulence can influence on the revolutionary Egypt where the army tries to provide a peaceful transition from Mubarak regime.
Southern direction: The Libyan revolt can intensify the political processes in Sahel and Sahara and influent unpredictably to the cross-boarding military activity of Tuareg tribes from Mali to Chad in their fight for Azaouad establishing. As for Chad separately the level of political stability of the state is low enough, so Libyan tribes and Libyan weapons can explode that political situation.
As a result the revolt in Libya brings political and security risks for the neighbor regions and these risks need to be localized by the UN or concerned states.
Conclusion
In February – March 2011 world community is facing on strong challenge in Libya where rebels are fighting against Qaddafi’s regime and following different ideas and Col. Qaddafi tries to make “a bloodbath” for intractable citizens and former allies. Sure Libya is not in the center of international arena and not the key region of the world but Libya is the gate to and from the most difficult regions of Africa – sub-Saharan territories with permanent humanitarian disasters.
The members of the UN Security Council should try to localize Libyan challenge and make an effective decision of this for the regional and international security, stability and development.
