Hurricanes and Global Warming

Background

Read an abridged version of the article written by Richard Black,
environmental correspondent, published on BBC News website.

The article represents analysis of different views on the existence
of a link between hurricanes and global warming.

Find the arguments pro and contra.

 

Appendices

Hurricanes and global warming - a link?

Every time a hurricane comes along - or a flood, or a freeze, or a
heat wave - the question is now asked "is it linked to global warming"?

... Certainly, 2005 appears to have been an unusually active year.

The US National Hurricane Center/Tropical Prediction Center
comments in its August summary that thus far in 2005, there have
been 12 named storms and four hurricanes.

"These numbers are well above the long-term averages of 4.4 storms
and 2.1 hurricanes that would normally have formed by this date."

But a single year's observation does not permit the divination
of a long-term trend, or the attribution of that trend to a cause such
as climatic warming.

"Based on recent research, the consensus view is that we don't
expect global warming to make a difference to the frequency of
hurricanes," explains Julian Heming, from the UK Meteorological Office.
"Activity is naturally very variable in terms of frequency, intensity
and regional occurrence; in the Atlantic, there are active phases and not
so active phases, and currently we're in the middle of an active phase.
"It's very dangerous to explain Rita or Katrina through global
warming, because we have always had strong hurricanes in the
USA - the strongest one on record dates back to 1935."

Records from the 20^,h century suggest that hurricane formation
over the Atlantic has changed phase every few decades: the 1940s
and 50s were active, the 70s and 80s less so, while the currently
active phase appears to have commenced in 1995.

A key factor in the formation of a tropical cyclone - a low-pressure
region that can turn into a hurricane - is sea-surface temperature,
which has to be above about 27 degrees Celsius.

So anything which changes the sea-surface temperature in the
right parts of the world could theoretically affect hurricane formation.
The most recent study on the issue, published this month in the
journal Science, found that while the incidence of hurricanes and
tropical storms has remained roughly constant over the last 30 years,
there has been a rise in the number of intense hurricanes with wind
speeds above 211km/h (131mph).

The leader of that research project, Dr Peter Webster, believes
there may be a link to climate change.

"What I link we can say is that the increase in intensity is
probably accounted for by the increase in sea-surface temperature,"
he told the BBC News website, "and I think probably the sea-surface
temperature increase is a manifestation of global warming."

Appendices

"The problem is", observes Julian Heming, "that we can only look back about 35 years with satellite data; before that the record is somewhat
unreliable, and 35 years isn't long enough to draw a definite conclusion."

"Before global satellite coverage, we're pretty sure there are
gaps in the record; storms would start at sea and die out at sea, so
we never knew about them."

The changing phases of Atlantic hurricane activity are not
completely understood; but there appears to be a link to fluctuations
in the thermohaline circulation, the global pattern of ocean currents
which in western Europe appears as the Gulf Stream.

By causing the sea-surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic to
change by even a degree Celsius, these fluctuations can bring major
differences to the number of hurricanes generated in a particular year.

Other natural climate cycles such as the El Nino Southern
Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation may also play a role.

The other crucial factor with Katrina and Rita is where they landed.

Some hurricanes never reach land; others will hit a sparsely-
populated area, causing minimal damage.

This also appears to be determined by weather systems, in
particular the location of a region of high atmospheric pressure, the
sub-tropical ridge.

"In the Atlantic, storms form in the east and move towards the
west," says Julian Heming, "and at some point they turn northwards."

"Last year the region did extend across the Atlantic, and so
hurricanes were forced much further west - hence Ivan, Jean, Charlie
and Francis all hit the US."

... Now that climate scientists are being taken seriously, they
are also under pressure to produce instant answers.

One problem is that not all of those answers exist. Another problem
is that some scientists-not to mention lobby groups, environmental
organizations, politicians, newspapers and commentators - will go
much further in their public statements than the data allow.

It is difficult to avoid the conclusion that we would all benefit
from people on both wings of the issue looking rather more to
research, however labored its progress, and rather less to screaming
headlines and easy quotes.

Note: termohaline circulation - термохалинная циркуляция (циркуля-
ция, обусловленная зависимостью соленности от температуры)

Story from ВВС NEWS:

http://news. bbc. со. uk/go/pr/fr/I/hi/sci/tech/42 76242. stm

published: 2005/09/23

 

Appendices

Appendices

 

Task

You are either:

1) one of the co-workers of Julian Heming, from the UK Meteoro-
logical Office (an opponent of the effect of global warming on a number
of hurricanes) or

2) a representative of Dr. Peter Webster's team (a supporter of a
certain link between global wanning and hurricanes).

Form two group A and B. Each group think over and discuss the
arguments and facts to justify their view point, prepare a short
report and questions to be asked the students from the other group
defending the opposite point of view.

Then the groups meet at the scientific conference to discuss the
results of scientific research. Choose the speakers from the groups.

If you are not making a report, play the role of participants of the
conference. Listen and ask questions.

Then try to assess the reports, discuss the following questions.

1. Did the report have a logical structure - a beginning, middle
and end?

2. Was there a summary or conclusion?

3. Was it clear? Were any original ideas expressed? Were any
additional sources of information used in preparing the report?

4. Was the pace too quick, too slow, or just right?

5. Was the language fluent, accurate and appropriate?

6. Was the voice clear enough? Was it varied in pitch or monotonous?

7. What is your general impression about the content of the
report and the way in which it was presented?

Case 2
Could Global Warming Bring Colder Winters to Europe?

Task 1

Work in two groups. One group read the article called "Greenhouse
gases 'do warm oceans'", the other "Warming could bring colder UK
winters".

Then each group write down in the appropriate columns of the
table the information given in the article. Share your findings with
the other group and decide what facts and ideas are expressed in
the both articles and what additional information they contain.

Table

 

global warming related problems	supporting evidence	predictions and estimation of their probability	grounds for doubts

Article 1
Greenhouse gases "do warm oceans"

By Paul Rincon

BBC News science reporter, in Washington DC

Scientists say they have "compelling" evidence that ocean
warming over the past 40 years can be linked to the industrial release
of carbon dioxide.

US researchers compared the rise in ocean temperatures with
predictions from climate models and found human activity was the
most likely cause.

In coming decades, the warming will have a dramatic impact on
regional water supplies, they predict.

Details of the study were released at a major science meeting in

Washington DC.

The conference is the annual gathering of the American Association
for the Advancement of Science (AAAS).

"High confidence"

"This is perhaps the most compelling evidence yet that global
warming is happening right now and it shows that we can
successfully simulate its past and likely future evolution," said lead
author Tim Barnett, of the climate research division at the Scripps
Institution of Oceanography in San Diego, California.

"If you take this data and combine it with a decade of earlier
results, the debate about whether or not there is a global warming
signal here and now is over at least for rational people."

The team fed different scenarios into computer simulations to try to
reproduce the observed rise in ocean temperatures over the last 40 years.

 

\\(y

Appendices

Appendices

 

They used several scenarios to try to explain the oceanic
observations, including natural climate variability, solar radiation
and volcanic emissions, but all fell short.

"What absolutely nailed it was greenhouse warming," said Dr Barnett.

This model reproduced the observed temperature changes in the
oceans with a statistical confidence of 95%, conclusive proof- say the
researchers - that global warming is being caused by human activities.

"Political action"

Regional water supplies will be dramatically affected by climate
change in the decades immediately ahead, say the team.

The western US is already experiencing water shortages and research
suggests that the region could face a water crisis within 20 years.

In the South American Andes and western China, millions of
people could be left without adequate water during the summer due
to accelerated melting of glaciers.

"If the snow pack melts sooner, and if societies don't have the
ability catch all of that water, they're going to end up with water
shortages in the summer," Dr Barnett explained.

According to the Scripps researcher, political leadership was
now needed to avert a global disaster.

"Hopefully we can get the US cranked around in that direction.
I think the first thing to do is figure out the global warming-related
problems we have ahead of us around the world."

"Unless we know what we're dealing with, I think it's going to
be pretty hard to fix it."

Story from BBC NEWS:

http://news. bbc. со. uk/go/pr/fr//l/hi/sci/tech/42 75m

Published: 2005/02/17 23:49:01 GMT

Article 2
Warming could bring colder UK winters

By Penny Palmer
BBC Horizon

Britain could be heading for a "big freeze" if global warming
switches off an important ocean current in the Atlantic, some
scientists say.

Britain is kept relatively mild in the winter by the warm air blanket
brought to us from the tropics by a branch of the Gulf Stream.

But if global warming continues to melt major ice sheets, that
supply of warm air could come to an abrupt end, according to a

number of experts.

The Gulf Stream relies on a sensitive "conveyer belt" action,
which could be "switched off - quite suddenly - if it becomes
diluted by fresh water from the melting ice-sheets, they claim.

Dr Terry Joyce, an oceanographer from Woods Hole
Oceanographic Institute, US, believes there is a 50% chance of a
sudden climate change happening in the next 100 years.

"It will be quick," he says. "Suddenly one decade we're warm,
and the next decade we're in the coldest winter we've experienced
in the last 100 years, but we're in it for a 100 years."

The possibility of much harsher winters in the UK is reported in
the Horizon programme on BBC Two.

Ice melt

It is the Gulf Stream that allows us to live the way we do. But
now scientists have found evidence that the current that carries the
protective Gulf Stream is slowing down - and may even stop.

Dr Bill Turrell, from the Marine Laboratory, Aberdeen, has
measured a drop in the salinity, the first warning sign that the current

might collapse.

"These changes are fundamental. They are substantial. They
are going to impact our climate and the climate our children have to
live in," he tells Horizon.

The US space agency (Nasa) has measured big increases in the
speed of some of Greenland's largest glaciers, and melt water on the
Greenland ice-sheet in 2001 was twice that recorded 10 years ago.

Scientists also predict that with an increase in global temperatures
will come an increase in rain at northern latitudes.

Huge Siberian rivers are discharging more water into the North
Atlantic than ever before, and are predicted to increase their
discharge by up to 50% in the next 100 years.

These factors combined could lead to a large amount of fresh
water making its way into the North Atlantic.

Climate switch

This particular geographical region of the North Atlantic is vital
because it is the point at which the Gulf Stream current sinks and
overturns to join the Atlantic Conveyer, a vast rotating belt that
takes cold water back to the tropics on the floor of the ocean.

Sinking - the process vital for powering the conveyer - relies
on a change in the density of water. As sea-ice forms at high northern

 

Appendices

Appendices

 

latitudes, it leads to an increase in the salinity of the cold, dense
salty water underneath, which sinks down into the depths.

The one thing that can stop the sinking is fresh water.

Fresh water effectively dilutes the salty seawater to the point at
which it cannot sink - and the conveyer shuts down. With no conveyer,
there is no Gulf Stream, and our benign winters come to an end.

Most ocean scientists believe the conveyer has a crucial freshwater
threshold level, at which it will shut off- like a light bulb.

The trouble is no one really knows where that threshold level is.

Past precedent

Dr Joyce says: "The likelihood of having an abrupt change is
increasing - global warming is moving us closer and closer to the
brink."

"We don't know where it is, but we know one thing: we're
moving closer to the edge."

And once the light bulb is turned off, no one is sure how to turn
it back on.

The conveyer remained switched off for over 1,000 years during
the Younger Dryas period, the most significant shutdown since the
last ice age.

Professor Richard Alley, a climate scientist from Pennsylvania
State University, tells Horizon: "I don't think that an abrupt, sudden
trip and fall down the stairs is the most likely outcome. But I think
that the probability of that is high enough that we should really
think about it."

Story from BBC NEWS:

http://news.bbc.co.Uk/go/pr/fr/-/l/hi/sci/tech/3266833.stm
Published: 2003/11/1311:31:01 GMT

Task 2

Sum up the main arguments of the articles and your own ideas on
the problem. Find additional information on the problem in the Internet.
Prepare a five minute presentation on the problem of consequences
of the global warming.

Task 3

Work in two groups. Make up the speeches of:

a) Group A - representatives of a research team supporting
the idea of colder winters for Europe due to global warming;

b) Group В - opponents of the idea, those who think there
is not enough evidence to confirm such kind of conclusions.

Discuss the problems of research in the field and its future
perspectives, the pros and cons of each approach.
Where can a lack of knowledge lead to?

Task 4

A scientist from Britain is lecturing a group of Russian students.
The group are invited to ask questions.

Task 5

A reporter is interviewing the researcher in the field of global
warming and its impacts on the Nature.

Task 6

You and your fellow-workers are going to make a joint report at
the international conference. You are discussing what arguments in
favour of and against colder climate for Europe due to global
warming are to be reported there.

Case 3

A Way to Block Global Warming

Background

Read the Russian article representing the interview of a famous
Russian scientist on the problems of global warming and a
journalist from newspaper the Trud (Labour) and do the following
tasks.

Глобальное потепление отменяется?

Недавно российские ученые сообщили, что им удалось раз-
работать уникальный способ управления температурным ре-
жимом атмосферы Земли. Теперь при желании можно не толь-
ко остановить глобальное потепление, но и снизить температу-
ру атмосферы нашей планеты на нужный градус. В чем суть
этой разработки, корреспонденту «Труда» рассказал автор про-
екта, директор Института глобального климата и экологии Рос-
гидромета и РАН, академик Юрий Антониевич Израэль.

- Юрий Антониевич, в конце июля (2005), получая орден
«За заслуги перед Отечеством», вы передали Владимиру Пу-
тину 2 странички текста. В нем, как вы сказали тогда чита-
телям «Труда», содержалось описание способа предотвра-
щения глобального потепления на Земле. Тогда вы отказались

 

раскрыть карты до того, как решение примет глава государ-
ства. Сейчас это уже не тайна?

- Президент ознакомил с нашей разработкой руководство
Академии наук России. Оно одобрило ее. Сейчас идет деталь-
ная проработка проекта предотвращения возможного глобаль-
ного потепления климата на планете.

- Вы говорите «возможного». А что, по-вашему, на Земле
не становится теплее?

- За последние 100 лет потеплело на 0,6 градуса (средние
данные по итогам наблюдения 10 тысяч метеостанций на всех
континентах).

На мой взгляд, это не причина для тревоги и глобальной пе-
рестройки мировой экономики. Климат на нашей планете не-
устойчив, и это ее судьба. За время своего существования она
не раз переживала и периоды мощного оледенения и сильней-
шего потепления. В каменноугольный период концентрация дву-
окиси углерода в атмосфере доходила до 6000 молекул на мил-
лион молекул воздуха. Климат был на 10-12 градусов теплее,
чем сейчас. При этом природа буйно развивалась и оставила
нам огромные запасы углеводородного сырья, каменного угля,
нефти, газа. В период оледенения в атмосфере было всего лишь
180 молекул двуокиси углерода на миллион молекул воздуха.
100 лет назад, в 1900 году - 280, сегодня - 380. Так что мы сей-
час, даже ближе по состоянию атмосферы к временам оледене-
ния, а не к сильному потеплению. В ближайший век концентра-
ция углекислого газа увеличится до 600, максимально 800 моле-
кул. Я не считаю это серьезным поводом для беспокойства. Для
России же это даже благо. За счет повышения средней темпера-
туры на 2-3 градуса и увеличения концентрации углекислого газа
в атмосфере мы сможем, если захотим, получить дополнитель-
ное продовольствие и без труда прокормить 1 миллиард человек.

- Зачем же тогда ученые переполошили все человечество
и призывают к сокращению выбросов двуокиси углерода в
атмосферу?

- Это уже не климатическая, но экономическая часть обсуж-
даемого вопроса. Для того чтобы просто остановить и стабили-
зировать концентрацию двуокиси углерода на нынешнем уровне
на ближайшие 100 лет потребуется около 18 триллионов долла-
ров. Откуда их взять? Предполагается, что страны, владеющие
квотами на выброс в атмосферу двуокиси углерода, в том числе
и Россия, будут продавать их примерно по 5 долларов за тонну.
Уверен, ни одна из них иа этом не разбогатеет. А вот когда их

Appendices

экономика выберет свои квоты, то для дальнейшего развития они
уже будут покупать их у других стран в сотни раз дороже - по
160-600 долларов за тонну. Или сдерживать свое производство.

- А тут наши ученые предлагают...

-...Ввести в нижнюю стратосферу (слой атсмосферы, начина-
ющийся на высоте 9-16 километров) мелкие аэрозольные части-
цы. Они, рассеявшись над планетой, снизят температуру в тро-
посфере (над землей) на необходимое людям количество граду-
сов. К такому выводу ученые пришли в процессе наблюдения за
деятельностью вулканов, которые во время извержения выбрасы-
вают в нижнюю стратосферу сотни тонн таких аэрозолей, состоя-
щих преимущественно из серы. Срок их жизни - два года. Чтобы
снизить температуру тропосферы всей планеты на 1-3 градуса,
требуется около 600 тысяч тонн аэрозоля. Для этого надо сжечь в
стратосфере 100-200 тысяч тонн серы. Необязательно поднимать
это вещество в стратосферу и жечь его там. Достаточно исполь-
зовать в высотных самолетах высокосернистое топливо.

- Мы не отравим серой все человечество?

- Количество аэрозоля, выброшенного в конечном счете на
земную поверхность, составит 0,2 миллиграмма серы на 1 квад-
ратный метр в год, что в 1000 раз меньше, чем выпадает ее за тот
же период в обычных атмосферных осадках. При этом солнечная
радиация уменьшится лишь на один процент. Наш метод не пред-
ставляет опасности для планеты и всего живого, населяющего ее,
но очень эффективен и легко подвергается корректировке.

Task 1

Discuss the ideas represented in the article.

What makes you agree (disagree) with the views expressed by
the scientist? -

Task 2

You are a British journalist. Make an interview of representatives of
the different research teams working on the change of the global climate
about ecological and economic aspects of global warming and the
method suggested by the Russian scientists to curb global warming.
You are especially interested in how safe the suggested method is, how
reliable are conclusions about it ecologically-friendly nature.

Appendices

Appendix 3

Phrases to Be Used in Discussion

1. Could you explain what you mean by...

2. I'm not quite sure I follow you.

3. Well, the point is...
. 4. It is obvious that...

 

5. In my opinion...

6. As I see it...

7. Won't (Would) you agree that...?

8. There is no doubt about that.

9. I couldn't agree more.

 

10. I completely agree with you.

11. That's just what I was thinking.

12. You haven't convinced me that...

13. I agree with you on the whole but...

14. Perhaps, but...

15. Possibly, but...

16. Oh, but don't you think that...

17. Look at it in another way...

18. On the contrary.

19. On the one hand...

20. On the other hand...

21. It seems to me that...

22. I am not sure about that.

23. As far as I know

24. Could you be a little more specific?

25. I am afraid, I don't agree with you.

Appendix 4

Some of the Markers Most Commonly Found
in Written EST Discourse

[16, pp. 53-54]

ORDERS (natural patterns)

Time order

Chronology: dates and clock times.

Process: first, second, finally, last, now, then, after.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Appendices

Space order

General order: in, out, above, below, to the left, in the centre

Specific: 1 mm directly above, at a 45° angle, normal to

Causality and result

(Both natural and logical patterns use the same terms: thus, hence,
therefore, as a result, causing, so that, such that as, since, as a
consequence of). '

PATTERNS (logical patterns')

Order of importance

First, second, third, most important, least important

Comparison and contrast

Comparison (relates similarities): in comparison, similarly, in like fashion,

as does X, so does Y

Contrast (relates differences): in contrast to, on the other hand, however,

nevertheless, by way of difference

Analogy

(compares things basically dissimilar): by the way of analogy,

analogically, by analogy, in much the same fashion

Exemplification

For example, by the way of example, for instance, as can be seen

Illustration

(Reference to a visual aid): as fig. 1 shows, as we can see from

Table N, See fig. 3

Appendix 5

Feedback Questions

[26, p. 140]

A. How do you evaluate the course in terms of:

1. Materials

2. Teaching approaches

3. Activities (variety and usefulness)

4. Pace

5. Appropriacy to needs/interests

B. To what extent do you feel that you have achieved objectives?
С Any other comments?

\

Contents

Introduction (in Russian).................................................................... 3

Tuning In................................................................................................. 9

Unit 1 Population and the Environment...................................... 13

Unit 2 "A Double-edged Sword" of Chemistry

and Environmental Problems........................................... 20

Unit 3 Acid Rain............................................................................... 26

Unit 4 Traffic and Air Pollution...................................................... 33

Unit 5 Water Pollution..................................................................... 39

Unit 6 Depletion of Stratospheric Ozone Layer......................... 50

Unit 7 Greenhouse Effect and Global Warming....................... 56

Unit8 Nuclear Energy and Nuclear Problems........................... 66

Unit 9 Genetic Pollution......................................................'........... 79

Unit 10 Reviewing Grammar........................................................... 85

Ex. 1. The Infinitive and the Infinitive Constructions..... 85

Ex.2. The Subjunctive Mood.............................................. 89

Glossary.............................................................................................. 92

Appendices....................................................................................... 110

Appendix 1. Environmental Quiz: How Much Do You Know
about the Knock-on Effects of the Every Day

Substances around Us?........................................ 110

Appendix 2. Case Study (discussion, role-play, presentation) 113

Case 1. Hurricanes and Global Wanning........................ 113

Case 2. Could Global Wanning Bring Colder Winters

to Europe?................................................................ 116

Case 3. A Way to Block Global Warming?....................... 121

Appendix 3. Phrases to Be Used in Discussion...................... 124

Appendix 4. Some of the Markers Most Commonly Found

in Written EST Discourse...................................... 124

Appendix 5. Feedback Questions.............................................. 125

References....................................................................................... 126